Monday, November 29, 2010

Will the country still be called Ireland after the Irish have left?

When the dinner table includes a pair of attorney’s who practice corporate law and an investment banker, the conversation inevitably skews to what’s in the financial news and Ireland was at the top of the page. “Frankly, they should simply default,” I said, “wipe the slate clean and start over, it worked for Argentina.” Robert nearly choked on his turkey, “Overexposed Robert?” Leah asked.

Its idiocy really, taxes will go up, services will be cut and for what? To pay off the debt of the banks that is owed to foreigners. Even if the Irish manage to get past this period, their residential real estate market has yet to crash, and it will, then the country will be back in the same situation. Default I say and go to a pub, have a Guinness and listen to some music.

Recently, over half of the inquiries about employment or temporary work have come from Irish nationals or other Europeans who have been working in Ireland for the last few years. An acquaintance referred a fellow, his resume and portfolio were impressive so I decided to meet with him since he was in Paris. Its not that we need anyone, but that can change and if I think someone is good I’ll refer them along.

We had lunch and the conversation turned to the crisis and I asked if that was why he was looking in Paris. He said it was and in several other countries as well. Then he made a joke about the Irish having emigrated so consistently, for so long and in such numbers that a help network exists to assist them. That interested me and I asked him to explain more. He did and he enjoyed the telling. “And Brandon,” I asked referring to the person who contacted me. “I’ve never met him,” was his reply.

The weather has been colder than I remember for November and early December and there is snow in the forecast for Wednesday and Thursday. Brrrr.

Update: More on the Irish idiocy. The analysis that the UK, France and Germany fear for the solvency of their own banks and will do anything to avoid capitalizing them is true. Germany has so many taboos, due to its history and in particular the rise of Hitler, but have they blocked out the economic conditions of the 20's that feed the anger that enabled Hitler's rise?



Anonymous VJ said...

Yep, they really should default. And may yet still. And yes, the Irish 'rat line' is justly infamous world wide! Cheers &Good Luck, 'VJ'

12:57 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The plan doesn't actually pay off the debt; it's merely a holding game to avoid a solvency problem across the Eurozone plus a bet that a better economy over time will make it somehow better years down the road, if not for Ireland than for the banks. Look at the interest rate. The debt will likely grow larger, not smaller.

Due to treaties and the Euro, Ireland's ability to default is highly constrained but they also don't seem to understand that there is power in powerlessness, in threatening to default, in saying no. They could cause a larger crisis, one that would jeopardize the Euro, but they have so far let themselves be beggared. And buggered. Without lubrication.

If a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down, they should have sloshed on vats of K-Y for this.


7:12 PM  
Blogger Kim said...

M, saw something recently that stated that Ireland's GDP would need an annual growth rate of 9% to keep ahead of the increasing costs of the bailout. Can't happen.

You're right the Irish should at least leverage their position and they're not.


6:00 PM  

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